SB-IPB BUSINESS TALK SERIES #2: “Upcoming Crisis: Business Cycle or Covid-19?”

IPB Business School held an online Business Talk Series (BTS) with the theme ‘Upcoming Crisis: Business Cycle or Covid-19?’ (10/5). Damhuri Nasution as Head of Research BNI Sekuritas and Mr. Noer Azam Achsani as Dean of the IPB Business School were presented as speakers. In addition, the second edition of the BTS online talk show was also broadcast via the IPB Business School Youtube account. 

The online talk show was hosted by Ferry Ardiansyah who acted as moderator and practitioner who was active in the financial and banking sector. Mr. Idqan Fahmi as Deputy Dean of Academic Affairs SB IPB gave a speech as well as introduced briefly about SB IPB. The first presentation related to ‘Introduction to Business Cycle Analysis and Its Application’ was delivered by Damhuri Nasution as Head of Research BNI Sekuritas. The man who graduated from IPB statistics started his presentation by introducing econometric theory and time series as projection tools that can be used in analyzing business cycles. Business cycle analysis is useful as input for investing in the capital market, input for the banking sector in credit expansion and potential deposits, counter cyclical policy formulations, business expansion, and launching of new products for business actors. He conveyed that the crisis could not be avoided, but the impact of the risks could be mitigated.

The second presentation was delivered by Noer Azam Achsani with the topic ‘The Next Global Recession: Business Cycles or Covid-19?’ which discusses the business cycle, business cycle analysis as an early warning system, Covid-19, and steps that must be taken after the crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. He said that the economic cycle takes place regularly and repeats itself from time to time. This provides a signal for us to understand the future direction of the economy (GDP) so that policies / decisions can be made appropriately. The economic slowdown has occurred throughout the world including in Indonesia since 2018 before the Covid-19 pandemic. The economic downturn affects all parties, including households, MSMEs, corporations and the financial sector. He concluded that the economic cycle was indeed heading for a crisis, Covid 19 made the crisis come faster and worse. 

The discussion and question and answer session was very interactive, the discussion participants even suggested that SB IPB initiate the establishment of a Business Cycle Center as a center for business cycle analysis in Indonesia. This was greeted positively by Prof. Noer Azam Achsani as Dean of the School of Business. Every crisis has its end, stay safe everyone! (FK)